The August 2013 Ghouta chemical attack refers to a series of alleged chemical attacks on Wednesday, 21 August 2013, in the Ghouta region of the Rif Dimashq Governorate of Syria. Opposition sources gave a death toll of 322[2] to 1,729.[8] According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which gave the lowest estimate of 322 killed,[2] 46 of the dead were rebel fighters.[10] The attacks have so far not been independently confirmed due to difficulty of movement on the ground,[11] and the Syrian government denied that chemical attacks occurred.[12] If confirmed, it would be the deadliest chemical attack since the Halabja poison gas attack in 1988.[13][14]
The Syrian government prevented United Nations investigators from reaching the sites of the attacks,[15][16] despite their accommodations being only a few kilometers away.[17] On 23 August, American and European security sources made a preliminary assessment that chemical weapons were used by Syrian forces, likely with high-level approval from the government of President Bashar al-Assad
The attacks reportedly occurred around 03:00 in the morning on 21 August 2013,[12] in the rebel-held, and mostly Sunni Muslim,[19] Ghouta agricultural area, just east of Damascus, which had been under an Army siege, backed by Hezbollah,[20][21] for months. The towns attacked were: Hammuriyah, Irbin, Saqba, Kafr Batna, Mudamiyah,[5] Harasta, Zamalka and Ain Terma.[22] An attack was also reported in the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Jobar.[23] Some of the victims died while sleeping.[19]
On 21 August, the LCC claimed that of the 1,338 victims, 1,000 were in Zamalka, among which 600 bodies were transferred to medical points in other towns and 400 remained at a Zamalka medical centre.[7] At least six medics died while treating the victims.[24]
The attack came almost exactly one year after U.S. President Barack Obama's "red line" speech.[25] According to a Jerusalem Post correspondent, the attack occurred after "the US and its allies concluded months ago that, since at least Christmas of last year, Syria’s nominal president Bashar Assad has tested chemical weapons intermittently on his own people."[26]
The day after the alleged chemical attacks, on 22 August, the area of Ghouta was bombarded by the Syrian army.[27]
Timing
The BBC News interpreted darkness and prayer calls in videos to be consistent with a pre-dawn timing of the attacks. BBC News considered it significant that the "three main Facebook pages of Syrian opposition groups" reported "fierce clashes between FSA rebels and government forces, as well as shelling by government forces" at 01:15 local time (UTC+3) on 21 August 2013 in the eastern Gouta areas that were later claimed to have been attacked with chemical weapons.[28]
BBC News stated that an hour and a half later, the same three Facebook pages reported the first claims of chemical weapons use, within a few minutes of one another. At 02:45 UTC+3, the Ein Tarma Co-ordination Committee stated that "a number of residents died in suffocation cases due to chemical shelling of the al-Zayniya area [in Ein Tarma]." At 02:47, the Sham News Network reported an "urgent" message that Zamalka had been attacked with chemical weapons shells. At 02:55, the LCC made "a similar report."[28] The Los Angeles Times timed the attacks at "about" 03:00.[12]
Witness statements
Symptoms
Witness statements to The Guardian about symptoms included "people who were sleeping in their homes [who] died in their beds," headaches and nausea, "foam coming out of [victims'] mouths and noses," a "smell something like vinegar and rotten eggs," suffocation, "bodies [that] were turning blue," a "smell like cooking gas" and redness and itching of the eyes.[29] Richard Spencer of The Telegraph summarised witness statements, stating, "The poison ... may have killed hundreds, but it has left twitching, fainting, confused but compelling survivors."[30] Symptoms reported by Ghouta residents and doctors to Human Rights Watch included "suffocation, muscle spasms and frothing at the mouth, which are consistent with nerve agent poisoning."[15]
Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh, present in Eastern Ghouta, stated, "Hours [after the shelling], we started to visit the medical points in Ghouta to where injured were removed, and we couldn't believe our eyes. I haven't seen such death in my whole life. People were lying on the ground in hallways, on roadsides, in hundreds."[31]
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) stated that in three hospitals in the area with which it has "a strong and reliable collaboration", about "3600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms [were received] in less than three hours on the morning" of 21 August, among which 355 died. Symptoms listed by MSF included "convulsions, excess saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress". MSF Director of Operations Bart Janssens stated that MSF "can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack. However, the reported symptoms of the patients, in addition to the epidemiological pattern of the events—characterised by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers—strongly indicate mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent."[32]
Delivery method
Abu Omar of the Free Syrian Army stated to The Guardian that the rockets involved in the attack were unusual because "you could hear the sound of the rocket in the air but you could not hear any sound of explosion" and no obvious damage to buildings occurred.[29] Human Rights Watch's witnesses reported "symptoms and delivery methods consistent with the use of chemical nerve agents."[15]
Activists and local residents contacted by The Guardian said that "the remains of 20 rockets [thought to have been carrying neurotoxic gas were] found in the affected areas. Many [remained] mostly intact, suggesting that they did not detonate on impact and potentially dispersed gas before hitting the ground."[33]
Intelligence reports
On 23 August, US officials stated that American intelligence detected activity at Syrian chemical weapons sites before the attack on 21 August.[34]
Analysis of videos
Experts who have analysed the first video said it shows the strongest evidence yet consistent with the use of a lethal toxic agent. The evidence was so compelling that it convinced experts who had previously raised questions over the authenticity of previous claims or who had highlighted contradictions, one of them being Jean Pascal Zanders, a former analyst from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.[35]
Visible symptoms reportedly included rolling eyes, foaming at the mouth, and tremors. There was at least one image of a child suffering miosis, the pin-point pupil effect associated with the nerve agent Sarin, a powerful neurotoxin reportedly used before in Syria. Ralph Trapp, a former scientist at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said the footage showed how a chemical weapons attack on a civilian area would look like, and went on to note "This is one of the first videos I've seen from Syria where the numbers start to make sense. If you have a gas attack you would expect large numbers of people, children and adults, to be affected, particularly if it's in a built-up area."[35]
According to a report by The Telegraph, "videos uploaded to YouTube by activists showed rows of motionless bodies and medics attending to patients apparently in the grip of seizures. In one piece of footage, a young boy appeared to be foaming at the mouth while convulsing."[1]
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of British Chemical and Biological counterterrorism forces, told BBC that the images were very similar to previous incidents he had witnessed, although he could not verify the footage.[36]
Analysis, verifiability, doubts and speculations
Physical arguments
CNN noted that some opposition activists claimed the use of "Agent 15," also known as BZ, in the attacks, for which some experts express doubt the Syrian government possesses, and the symptoms caused by said chemical are very different from the symptoms reported in this attack. Independent experts who studied the flood of online videos, which appeared on the morning of the attacks, were unsure of the cause of the deaths. Gwyn Winfield, editorial director at the magazine CBRNe World, which reports on chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosives use, analyzed the videos and wrote on the magazine's site: "Clearly respiratory distress, some nerve spasms and a half-hearted washdown (involving water and bare hands?), but it could equally be a riot control agent as a (chemical warfare agent)." Some analysts speculated that a stockpile of chemical agents may have been hit by shelling, whether controlled by the rebels or the government.[23] After an analysis a professor of microbiology, who watched the videos, concluded with a "best guess" that the videos were indicative of the aftermath of an attack with some incapacitating chemical agent, but probably not sarin gas or a similar weapon, as they would have left signs of visible blistering.[37]
General
On 22 August, the United States said they were unable to conclusively say that chemical weapons were used in the alleged attack. U.S. President Barack Obama directed U.S. intelligence agencies to urgently help verify the allegations.[38] On August 23, American and European security sources made a preliminary assessment that chemical weapons were used by Syrian forces, likely with high-level approval from the government of President Bashar al-Assad.[18]
Motives
Some also pointed to the question of motive and timing, if government forces were responsible, since the hotel in which the team of United Nations chemical weapons inspectors were staying was just a few miles from the attack. A CNN reporter pointed to the fact that government forces did not appear to be in imminent danger of being overrun by rebels in the areas in question, in which a stalemate had set. He questioned why the Army would risk such an action that could cause international intervention. The reporter also questioned if the Army would use sarin gas just a few kilometers from the center of Damascus on what was a windy day.[23]
A reporter for The Telegraph also pointed to the questionable timing given government forces had recently beaten back rebels in some areas around Damascus and recaptured territory. "Using chemical weapons might make sense when he is losing, but why launch gas attacks when he is winning anyway?" The reporter also questioned why would the attacks happen just three days after the inspectors arrived in Syria.[39] Bloomberg news offered an opinion to the question "why would the Assad regime launch its biggest chemical attack on rebels and civilians precisely at the moment when a UN inspection team was parked in Damascus? The answer to that question is easy: Because Assad believes that no one–not the UN, not President Obama, not other Western powers, not the Arab League–will do a damn thing to stop him."[40]
Israeli news reporter Ron Ben-Yishai stated that the motive to use chemical weapons could be the "army's inability to seize the rebel's stronghold in Damascus' eastern neighbourhoods." He also speculated that this coupled with FSA planning to expand the area in their control and advance towards the centre of the capital which, in his opinion, pressured the government to use chemical weapons against civilians in these neighbourhoods with the goal of deterring the FSA fighters who seek shelter inside residential homes and operate from within them.[41]
Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh stated that the Assad government "would [not] care about [using] chemical weapons, [since] it knows that the international community would not do anything about it, like it did nothing about all the previous crimes the regime committed against its people. ... why [would] the regime [not] care to use [chemical] weapons or any kind of weapons to stop the progress of the Syrian Free Army from the capital, Damascus?"[31].[18]
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